Facebook Predator Math

The Victim Lure Ratio is the average number of lures it takes a Predator to connect with a susceptible victim. For example, if it takes on average, fifty private messages to connect with a suitable victim, then the VLR is 1/50.

The Predator Process Risk represents the average chance that the Predator has of
being stopped or caught per each procedural victim lure. For example, if it takes an
average two hundred private messages before the Predator is stopped, then the PPR is 1/200. As long as VLR is greater than PPR, Predators will be able to thrive and prey upon victims on Facebook.

Raising awareness and safety precaution levels among the potential victim pool will have the effect of lowering the VLR, but due to the realities and vulnerabilities of human nature, there will always be susceptible victims. Therefore, no matter how much effort put forth, this ratio will never become zero.

Predator Process Risk is the other side of the equation. It can only be increased by the actions of Facebook and Law Enforcement. The existence of an accessible pool of   vulnerable victims will draw Predators to Facebook. As long as the PPR is low, there will be more Predators entering Facebook than being removed. This increasing
number of Predators will result in more victimizations.

Assume for example, awareness and safety education decreases the VLR by 300%. It now takes 150 lures to connect with one victim as opposed to 50. But on the other hand, the number of Predators on Facebook increases from 1,000 to 3,000.

Three thousand Predators initiate 150 lures for a total of 450,000 lures. Since the VLR is 1/150, there are 3,000 successful connections with victims. Decreasing the VLR has the effect of causing Predators to initiate more lures, but as long as the VLR is less than the PPR of 1/200, the Predators will methodically connect with victims.

Therefore, the only way to successfully stop Facebook Predators from systematically preying upon susceptible victims is to combine awareness and safety education with increased enforcement by Facebook and Law Enforcement. Thus, simultaneously
lowering the Victim Lure Ratio and raising the Predator Process Risk.

If these actions are not taken, Facebook Predator Math will guarantee there will be
more victimizations originating from Facebook.